"Humanoids or Hype? How KOID and HUMN Could Power a $10 Trillion Transformation
Humanoid robots are no longer just science fiction. Their arrival on Wall Street — via two new ETFs, KOID and HUMN — signals that serious money is starting to chase a once-fantastical theme.
This ETF showdown is a tale of two tech frontiersmen: one measured and methodical, the other a gunslinger.
For investors hungry for 10x upside, these two ETFs offer very different ways to play the humanoid revolution.
Humanoids and a Multi-Trillion Dollar Labor Disruption
Humanoid robotics sits at the nexus of AI, automation, and labor market upheaval.
These machines are no longer futuristic novelties. They are built to do real work: in warehouses, hospitals, factories, and homes.
As breakthroughs in perception, locomotion, and cognition compound, the potential market is exploding.
Elon Musk says Tesla’s Optimus bot could be bigger than its car business.
Goldman Sachs pegs the humanoid market at $150 billion by 2035.
Ark Invest sees a trillion-dollar annual GDP boost from robotic labor in the coming decades.
That might still be conservative.
The global economy faces structural labor shortages. Humanoids promise to be the “steel-collar workers” that step into the breach.
U.S. manufacturing is short 2 million workers by 2030.
Aging societies like Japan and South Korea are desperate for scalable care solutions.
Global industrial automation already attracts over $250 billion in annual investment.
Humanoids aren’t just sci-fi anymore.
They’re the next productivity boom — with arms and legs.
And as Paul Krugman said about productivity: It’s the only thing that matters.
Camillo’s Call: Betting on the Next $10 Trillion Shift
Last week I wrote about Chris Camillo, the “social arbitrage” investor who turned $20,000 into $2 million by spotting cultural inflection points before the market.
He is betting big on humanoids.
To Camillo, this isn’t hype — it’s the most overlooked megatrend of the 2030s. And while he hasn’t formally backed HUMN, the fund’s portfolio — loaded with tactile sensors, locomotion AI, and robot infrastructure — echoes his strategy.
If he’s right, HUMN isn’t just an ETF.
It’s venture capital for the masses.
ETF Profiles: KOID vs. HUMN
KOID (KraneShares Global Humanoid and Embodied Intelligence Index ETF):
Passive, rules-based
Tracks 51 equally weighted global names
Mixes big players (Nvidia, Tesla) with niche enablers (MP Materials)
Geographic spread across the U.S., China, and Japan
HUMN (Roundhill Humanoid Robotics ETF):
Actively managed
30 high-conviction positions
Targets core builders of humanoids and enabling tech (sensors, AI, materials)
Concentrated exposure: Tesla (12.6%), Nvidia (8%), plus Asia/Europe niche leaders
Where KOID Offers Diversification, HUMN Offers Conviction
Both ETFs include the heavyweights. But HUMN leans harder into companies actually building humanoid systems. KOID casts a wide thematic net — but that breadth may dilute your exposure to the real disruptors.
KOID = coverage.
HUMN = focus.
Strategy Breakdown: Passive vs. Active
KOID’s passive model offers low cost, broad exposure — ideal for “set it and forget it” investors. But it lacks agility.
HUMN, by contrast, can rotate, concentrate, and double down on high-beta disruptors as the sector evolves.
In a fast-moving, capital-intensive space like humanoids, that flexibility matters.
The Numbers Game: The Pareto Principle in Action
In tech investing, the 80/20 rule becomes the 95/5 rule: a few names drive nearly all the gains. HUMN leans into that math. KOID spreads the risk — and the reward.
Want smoother volatility? KOID.
Want a shot at the next Nvidia? HUMN.
The Psychology: Comfort vs. Conviction
Most investors chase what feels safe. KOID scratches that itch.
But HUMN is for the moonshot crowd — those who believe humanoid robots won’t just walk, but run, scale, and replace whole swaths of manual labor. If you're betting on inevitability, not improbability, HUMN’s concentration is an advantage.
My Tactical Take
Buy KOID for diversified AI + robotics exposure.
Buy HUMN for concentrated humanoid moonshots.
Pair them for balance: KOID as the core, HUMN as the high-beta satellite.
Consider call options on HUMN for asymmetry.
Use a 25% trailing stop to protect gains if hype outruns reality.
Final Word: This Is a Call on Conviction
Buffett once said, “When it rains gold, put out the bucket, not the thimble.”
HUMN may be that bucket.
KOID? A very respectable thimble.
So here’s your decision: when humanoids begin replacing humans…
Do you want to own the future — or just a piece of the trend?
Choose wisely.