The Gloomcycle Myth: Why Markets Keep Defying Doom Predictions in 2025
"The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient."
— Warren Buffett
In 2025, it’s transferring money from the fearful to the fully invested.
Despite headlines screaming about Trump turmoil, deficit disaster, and global chaos, U.S. stocks keep grinding higher.
The market seems to be trolling the doomcasters.
Welcome to the gloomcycle myth: when narratives scream crisis, but the market quietly climbs a wall of worry.
Retail Resilience: The “Smart Dumb Money” Strikes Back
Retail investors—once the butt of Wall Street jokes—are crushing it.
U.S. households now hold more in equities than at any point in history, even surpassing the dot-com era.
Since 2023, passive and momentum-driven strategies have outperformed most active managers.
And it’s not just meme stocks. Retail investors are leaning into long-term growth themes like AI and clean tech.
The so-called dumb money is getting a lot smarter.
AI: Bubble or the Beginning of a New Boom?
U.S. AI platforms dominate global usage. Capital is flooding in, betting on a productivity revolution akin to the 1990s.
But who profits—chipmakers, software providers, or platform ecosystems?
AI may be real. But if ROI doesn’t follow, valuations could collapse like 2000 all over again.
The $4 Billion-a-Day Buyback Bid
Corporate America is buying back stock like it’s the only game in town—because it is.
These repurchases have become a gravitational force under the market. While earnings growth is modest, CEOs are betting with their wallets.
International Inertia: Why Global Capital Still Flows to the U.S.
"Wriston’s Law still rules: Capital goes where it’s welcome—and stays where it’s well treated."
Yes, the U.S. is messy. But compared to Europe or China, it’s a beacon of innovation and liquidity.
This isn’t love. It’s lack of alternatives.
The Three Dominoes That Could Still Fall
AI narrative cracks
Valuations compress if productivity gains disappoint.Tariffs hit margins
If foreign suppliers pass on costs, inflation returns.Fiscal illusion fades
Consumer strength may be masking unsustainable deficit spending.
Playbook for the Gloom-Immune Investor
Follow the Buybacks – Track companies aggressively repurchasing shares. ETFs like PKW are worth a look.
Stay AI-Selective – Focus on leaders with user traction and monetization. Avoid the hype.
Barbell Your Portfolio – Combine blue-chip dividend payers with high-conviction moonshots.
Trust the Price Action – When the market shrugs off bad news, it’s telling you something.